Probabilistic Energy Intelligence

Forecast the grid.
Schedule with confidence.
Reduce deviation costs.

AeroGrid Analytics delivers AI-powered probabilistic generation forecasting and optimal scheduling for India's renewable energy producers, traders, and DISCOMs — built for CERC/SERC compliance from day one.

Solar Gen Forecast · Rajasthan Zone 2 · 15-min intervals
LIVE
P50 (Median)
P10–P90 Band
Actual
3.2%
nMAE
87
Skill Score
0.08
CRPS
Built for
The Challenge

India's RE grid is growing faster
than its forecasting infrastructure.

With 500 GW RE targets by 2030, deviation settlement costs, and ISTS scheduling mandates, poor forecasting has real financial consequences for every stakeholder in the value chain.

High Deviation Penalty Costs

CERC DSM regulations impose severe UI/deviation charges when generation deviates from declared schedules — point forecasting errors translate directly into rupee losses.

Point Forecasts Miss Uncertainty

Single-value forecasts give no quantification of risk. Cloudy ramp events, wind variability, and NWP model disagreements require probabilistic confidence bands, not a single number.

Fragmented Scheduling Workflows

Forecast generation, schedule optimization, BESS dispatch, and RLDC submission are siloed across teams and tools — causing delays, errors, and missed gate-closure windows.

Product Suite

Four precision instruments.
One integrated platform.

Each AeroGrid module operates independently or as part of a connected forecasting and scheduling stack — deployable via API or our web dashboard.

AeroSchedule
Stochastic Schedule Optimisation

Converts probabilistic forecasts into optimal generation schedules that minimise expected deviation penalties under CERC DSM regulations. Integrates BESS dispatch for round-the-clock supply commitments.

  • Stochastic programming across forecast scenarios
  • DSM slab-aware penalty minimisation objective
  • BESS state-of-charge optimisation (cycle-aware)
  • Automated schedule revision at each gate closure
  • RLDC/SLDC-compatible XML/API submission
AeroWatch
Real-Time Grid & Portfolio Monitor

Live monitoring dashboard aggregating generation actuals, forecast vs actual tracking, DSM meter readings, and alert workflows — across a multi-site renewable portfolio on one screen.

  • Real-time SCADA ingestion via API/MQTT/SFTP
  • Live deviation tracking against declared schedule
  • Automated alerts at DSM slab threshold breaches
  • Portfolio-level aggregation and zone-wise view
  • Customisable KPI dashboards for IPP/DISCOM roles
AeroInsight
Performance Analytics & Reporting

Backtesting, skill score diagnostics, and financial impact attribution — understand which forecast errors cost the most and where model performance can be improved across your portfolio.

  • Automated monthly CERC forecast performance reports
  • Skill score decomposition by weather regime
  • Financial impact attribution: DSM ↔ forecast error
  • Competitor benchmarking vs persistence/climatology
  • REST API + CSV exports for existing BI stacks
Data Pipeline

From satellite to schedule
in under 4 minutes.

A fully automated ingestion-to-submission pipeline built for India's grid constraints, data availability, and gate-closure timelines.

NWP Ingestion
GFS, ECMWF, IMD WRF, MERRA-2 ingested every 6h via API
Ensemble Blending
Bayesian model averaging across NWP ensembles weighted by recent skill
Plant ML Model
Site-specific gradient boosting model trained on SCADA + irradiance history
Schedule Optimiser
Stochastic optimisation across P10–P90 scenarios with BESS co-dispatch
RLDC Submission
Automated submission in RLDC/SLDC-compatible format before gate closure
<4min
End-to-end pipeline latency from NWP to submission-ready schedule
15min
Minimum forecast resolution, aligned with CERC DSM time-blocks
3.1%
Median nMAE on solar portfolio in Rajasthan pilot (Day-ahead)
40+
NWP variables ingested per site per run cycle
Regulatory Alignment

Built around CERC, SERC,
and India's grid codes.

AeroGrid Analytics is designed from the ground up for India's energy regulatory environment — not retrofitted from a European or US forecasting stack.

Regulatory Coverage

  • CERC DSM Deviation Settlement Mechanism — penalty-optimised scheduling with full slab-rate awareness
  • RPO/REC Renewable Purchase Obligation tracking and REC generation forecasting for compliance planning
  • ISTS OA Inter-State Transmission System Open Access scheduling, with RLDC gate-closure automation
  • SERC State-level regulatory reporting templates for Maharashtra (MERC), Rajasthan (RERC), Gujarat (GERC), Tamil Nadu (TNERC)
  • MNRE Forecast accuracy reporting aligned with MNRE monitoring framework for 500 GW target assets

Deployment Options

  • SaaS Fully managed cloud deployment with 99.9% SLA — operational within 5 business days of data onboarding
  • API REST + WebSocket API for integration with existing SCADA, EMS, or energy trading platforms
  • On-Prem Private cloud or on-premises deployment available for PSUs and DISCOM clients with data residency requirements
  • Hybrid Compute-at-edge for real-time SCADA ingestion with cloud-based NWP processing — suited for remote wind sites
About AeroGrid

India-first. Grid-native.
Probabilistic by design.

AeroGrid Analytics was founded by energy engineers and ML practitioners who spent years watching Indian RE assets lose crores to avoidable DSM penalties — because the forecasting tools were either built for European grids or too generic to capture India's unique meteorological and regulatory landscape.

We built AeroGrid to be natively probabilistic, natively Indian, and natively integrated with the scheduling workflows that energy teams actually use — from the IEX day-ahead market to RLDC block-wise scheduling.

Pune
HQ & Engineering
Solar + Wind
Primary asset classes
B2B SaaS
Business model
Pre-Seed
Stage · Actively fundraising
Get Started

See AeroGrid with
your own generation data.

We run a 30-day pilot on your live plant data — no integration overhead, no long procurement cycles. See real probabilistic forecasts and estimated DSM savings before you commit.

For IPPs, DISCOMs, trading companies, and BESS operators. Typical onboarding: 5 business days.